The UFC will be visiting the home of the Indiana Pacers on Saturday with an event that became somewhat less interesting after the removal of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-6-1-1 MMA, 3-2 UFC, #9 IWMMAR) from a card that otherwise would have proved an interesting, if Nogueira-centric event.
That’s not to say that the card is uninteresting, just that knowing what we could have had in Minotauro makes this event somehow lacking. But moving into the substance of the card, there’s a lot of interesting stuff going on in the event.
I’ve waffled a lot on the fight between Mark Hunt (5-6 MMA) and Sean McCorkle (9-0 MMA). There was a period where Hunt looked, simply, too easy to beat, but as I revisit the opponents who have beaten him on his five fight slide, where Melvin Manhoef (24-8-1 MMA) is the least impressive, and the way that Manhoef won is a way that, simply, Manhoef can beat anyone, on any given Saturday. McCorkle may very well be the x-factor in this fight, as it’s he may be a world beater. It’s hard to find much information on the guy, and it’s hard to find comparable, notable fighters on his record without stretching it a little bit. Jonathan Ivey (29-42 MMA) is comparable, since he’s fought some good guys, but Ivey loses badly to plenty of weak fighters, so even that’s a stretch. For me, what has swayed me back to Hunt is what I’m hearing about his conditioning. People are saying that he’s lost a ton of weight, he’s looking great and he’s trying to bring a late game to this bout. If he can weather whatever McCorkle brings, I think Hunt can definitely win. If he can stay off of the ground and use his hands, he’s definitely the better striker and can either put McCorkle out late, or win on scorecards by delivering a late beating.
Julio Paulino (17-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is trying to get his first win in the UFC, taking on Canadian T.J. Grant (15-4 MMA, 2-2 UFC). Paulino has an interesting record in the small circuit, but not particularly impressive. There are a few wins over UFC veterans, like Terry Martin (20-8 MMA, 2-2 UFC), but I think Grant is a more interesting fighter. He’s had a couple of tough UFC losses, going to the scorecards, but his wins are solid. He may not have substantially beaten Ryo Chonan (17-11 MMA, 1-3 UFC) in his UFC debut, but his stoppage of Kevin Burns (8-4 MMA, 2-3 UFC) was really impressive. I’ve been leaning towards Grant in this bout, and that’s where the smart call is.
Waylon Lowe (8-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is going to try to recover from a brutal knockout in the hands of Melvin Guillard (24-8 MMA, 7-4 UFC) in his UFC debut and Steve Lopez (12-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) will try and recover from an injury loss against Jim Miller (18-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC). Lopez is the veteran, though not by much, and Lowe has more experience fighting in the AAA levels of MMA (as a veteran of both Bellator and King of the Cage). I like Lowe to win this one, though it’s hard to tell with guys who have given very little indication as to their skill level in their UFC careers.
Thiago Tavares (14-3-1 MMA, 4-3-1 UFC) is the easiest pick on this card for me. Pat Audinwood (9-0-1 MMA) will be making his UFC debut, and it’s hard to see him taking on a veteran of eight UFC fights in his first appearance in the UFC. Also, it’s not as though Tavares is some middle-of-the-field guy. He’s got a skill set that makes him respectable in a bout with any fighter outside of the contender ladder. His standup is still coming along, but his ground game is solid, and he has some good skills.
Matt Mitrione (2-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) and Joey Beltran (12-3 MMA, 2-0 UFC) are both two fights into UFC careers, still, it’s hard for me to look at the two as equal in terms of stature in the UFC heavyweight division. Mitrione is, physically, much larger than Beltran, and while his technical skills aren’t all there, he seems to be picking things up, and the power in his hands is really impressive. Beltran has good cardio, and managed to beat down Rolles Gracie (3-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC), but he hasn’t dominated anyone the way that Mitrione has, and he doesn’t seem to have the power that Mitrione does in his hands. If Beltran can get Mitrione down and hold him there, he might be in good shape, but it’s hard to see Mitrione getting stopped, and similarly difficult to see this one going the distance.
C.B. Dollaway (10-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) has become much less interesting since his fight with Tom Lawlor (6-3 MMA, 2-2 UFC), since it seems more and more that he may just be a conventional wrestler. If he is, Joe Doerksen (45-12 MMA, 2-5 UFC) will make short work if him. Doerksen is a dramatically underrated fighter, as I think than many have actually factored him out of the fight with Dollaway. Still, Doerksen eats conventional wrestlers for lunch. Much of his career has been spent submitting wrestlers who have not yet developed solid submission defense. Many of the fighters he’s beaten have gone on to fight in the UFC, but Doerksen establishes that they lack a ground game, and forces them to get one in order to progress. Dollaway should definitely be able to win this fight, but if he slips up, Doerksen is one of those guys who can get the back and submit him, as he has a very serious no-gi Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background.
To start off the main card, we have one of my favorite fighters to watch, Melvin Guillard (24-8-2 MMA, 7-4 UFC), taking on the ever exciting Jeremy Stephens (18-5 MMA, 5-4 UFC). It’s hard to see this fight going the full fifteen minutes. I suppose anything is possible, but both of them are going to show up looking to prove how good their standup is. If Stephens decides he wants to work the ground-and-pound that seems like a reasonable gameplan, but I can’t imagine him keeping good control of Guillard on the ground. The guys who have beaten Melvin on the mat have all been better with submissions than Stephens is. When Melvin is given the opportunity to throw hands, I expect to see him put people to sleep, and this fight is no exception. I have Guillard taking home the win with an exciting KO.
For a lot of fans, the bout between Sean Sherk (33-4-1 MMA, 7-4 UFC) and Evan Dunham (11-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC, #9 IWMMAR) really hinges on whether you think Sherk is past his prime. Personally, I think that Sherk is winding down his career, but that’s not why I’m picking Dunham in this fight. Evan Dunham is a versatile and explosive lightweight, and his standup in his fight with Per Eklund (15-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC) impressed a lot of people. His jiu-jitsu in the fight with Efrain Escudero (13-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) was even more impressive. While he’s gone to decision twice, both of those decisions were razor sharp and with tough lightweight fighters. While I’m not sure that Dunham will be looking at a title shot for less than sixteen or eighteen months, Sherk is often the gateway to a title shot, and if he finishes the former lightweight champion, that’d definitely be impressive. I’m not sure he can put Sherk down, but he can definitely beat Sherk, perhaps very badly if the fight stays on the feet.
![Chris Lytle rolling kneebar SOTN [UFC 110]](http://i47.tinypic.com/2qxnu3o.gif)
The Ultimate Fighter 4 finale rematch between Matt Serra (11-6 MMA, 7-6 UFC) and Chris Lytle (29-17-5 MMA, 9-9 UFC) will be exciting as all hell, and if Lytle wins big, he can be in a serious conversation for taking on some welterweight contenders. Both are coming off of solid wins, and Lytle has rattled off three straight. Lytle is, perhaps, the most exciting fighter in the history of the UFC, with four Fight of the Night awards, two Submission of the Night and a KO of the Night, for seven total honors; contrast that to guys with a lot, like Clay Guida (27-11 MMA, 7-5 UFC) or Alan Belcher (16-6 MMA, 8-4 UFC) who each have four. Matt Serra’s win over Frank Trigg (19-8 MMA, 2-5 UFC) impressed a lot of people, including me, but the Chris Lytle we’ve seen in his last few fights has really been the best version of the fighter that I’ve ever seen. I actually scored the original fight for Lytle, though I realize that I’m in a minority in that respect, but either way, I think the improvement shown by Lytle is more impressive than the improvement shown by Serra.
Some thought Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-3 MMA, 2-0 UFC, #6 IWMMAR) was pretty much done after he got knocked out by Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (9-7 MMA, 1-2 UFC), but he has roared back in his last few fights, and though the win over Jason Brilz (18-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) was exciting and razor-thin, it’s really the fights leading up to it that showcased Nogueira’s aggression and power, especially on the feet. I was in the crowd when he demolished Vladimir Matyushenko (24-5 MMA, 2-1 UFC) fully expecting Matyushenko to control the fight, but the Janitor was never in it, and as soon as those first knees landed, we all knew it was over. The win over Luiz Arthur Cane (10-3-0-1 MMA, 3-3 UFC), while not the most impressive win over the Brazilian in recent memory, was show-stopping. Ryan Bader (11-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is a perpetual threat, and the immovable object to Nogueira’s unstoppable force, but I think that Nogueira takes this one. Bader’s power is well documented, but I’m not convinced that he’ll be able to land a big shot on this new machine and I’m not sure that he’s any better off on the ground. Certainly, the longer that this fight goes, the more it favors Bader, the powerful and athletic wrestler, but Nogueira has fifteen minutes to stop the bout, and I expect him to be looking to it every second.
Frank Mir (13-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC, #8 IWMMAR) vs. Mirko “CroCop” Filipovic (27-7-2-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC) really is a no-brainer for me. I have a ton of respect for Mirko’s striking, but the reality is that this fight will hit the mat. I don’t care if Frank has to jump guard, he will. He’s not an idiot. And when the fight hits the mat, I full expect Frank to do what we all know can be done: I expect him to submit CroCop. If Frank decides he wants to showcase his hands, he’s going to sleep, but if he fights smart, and he is a smart fighter, if a bit talkative, he’ll get CroCop to the mat and put on the grappling clinic he’s been drilling everyday in camp.
Overall, it should be a solid event. I expect Serra vs. Lytle and Guillard vs. Stephens to be the two primary contenders for Fight of the Night, though with a card like this, anything can come out of the undercard with an awesome performance. It’ll be a night worth turning into, if a little less impressive than it might have been.
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Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, c.b. dollaway, chris lytle, Evan Dunham, Frank Mir, Jeremy Stephens, joe doerksen, Joey Beltran, Julio Paulino, Mark Hunt, Matt Mitrione, matt serra, Melvin Guillard, Mirko CroCop, mma, Pat Audinwood, Ryan Bader, Sean McCorkle, Sean Sherk, steve lopez, T.J. Grant, Thiago Tavares, UFC, UFC 119, Waylon Lowe
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