I don’t really do previews much anymore, but I think it’s something that I should probably get back in the hang of doing. It gives a nice overview, and lets me keep a wider lens than the quirkier stuff I prefer to post about.
UFC 118 is the UFC’s first event in Massachusetts, and bringing an anticipated lightweight title fight to Boston will be a great way to kick off bringing MMA to a new part of New England, a trend that will hopefully continue. The four headliners on the card are all huge names, and however people regard the co-main event on this card, it should make for a fantastic event.
So, let’s start at the bottom of the card and work out way into the big fights.
Mike Pierce (11-3 MMA, 2-1 UFC) vs. Amilcar Alves (11-1 MMA)
Many of the commentators have a rule when looking at these undercard fights: if one of the fighters has a picture and the other fighter doesn’t, pick the guy who does. Typically, the UFC veteran will win against the guy who has never fought in the UFC before. This is a rule that, generally, works very well, but I’m going to violate it on this undercard fight. Pierce had an impressive debut against Brock Larson (29-4 MMA, 3-3 UFC) and his only UFC loss is to Jon Fitch (23-3-0-1 MMA, 13-1 UFC, #2 IWMMAR). He has a solid all-around game and he’s shown that he’s tough-as-nails. But Amilcar Alves is one of those guys that I look into and immediately start to consider as a prospect. He trains out of one of the best camps for smaller fighters, Nova Uniao, and has finished his last four fights in the first round, three by submission. If he’s one of the great jiu-jitsu guys that Andre Pederneires is bringing up, he’s going to be a tough fight for Pierce. So I’m calling this one for Alves, probably by submission.
Greg Soto (7-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. Nick Osipczak (5-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC)
Osipczak and Soto are both coming off of fights that they arguably could have won. Soto was disqualified due to an illegal upkick he threw in the third round and Osipczak dropped a split decision. Both of these guys are young prospects, they’re solid fighters with technical skills. It’s a classic grappler-striker matchup, and I think that the wrestling favors Soto, which is really what these fights come down to. Whoever can dictate the position of the bout will win, but Soto seems most equipped to get the fight where he needs it to be to win, so I’m thinking Soto by decision.
Dan Miller (11-4-0-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC) vs. John Salter (5-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC)
This is a back-against-the-wall situation for Miller, and it’s tougher because even if he wins, if he wins in an unimpressive fashion, it may not keep him on the UFC roster. Miller has three straight losses. Still, Salter is in a tough spot, as well. He came into this fight expecting to face a heavy-handed brawler in Phil Baroni (13-12, 3-6 UFC) and will end up facing a former wrestler and BJJ blackbelt in Miller. The matchup with Baroni actually may have been more favorable for Salter, though he had a good outing against a veteran grappler, Jason MacDonald (23-14 MMA, 5-6 UFC), in his last fight. Still, Miller has had the tougher bouts, he’s shown that he can get fights to the mat and finish them, and it’s hard to see Salter competing with Miller on the mat. I’m taking Miller by submission in this one.
Andre Winner (11-3-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) vs. Nik Lentz (18-3-2 MMA, 2-0-1 UFC)
While winner may be far from home, taking on another UFC veteran, it seems possible that Winner could have issues dealing with an American crowd that will undoubtedly support his opponent. This is the first time he’s fought an American in the United States. He fought Rolando Delgado (9-5 MMA, 1-2 UFC) in Manchester, knocking Roli out in the first round, and that was probably the most impressive performance of his career thus far. Still, Nik Lentz is somewhat less impressive to me than Winner. He’s won two decisions in his UFC career, but his fight against Thiago Tavares (10-3-1 MMA, 4-3-1 UFC) was not that impressive. I’m taking Winner, though I think it’ll be a close bout, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to the judges.
Joe Lauzon (18-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) vs. Gabe Ruediger (17-5 MMA, 0-1 UFC)
Honestly, I thought this was going to be the first gimme on the card. Usually, the undercard is much harder to call than the main card, if for no other reason than that we generally have much less information on the guys fighting. While most of you may recognize Rudiger as the douchebag who couldn’t make weight on season five of the Ultimate Fighter after going on the “gimme-cake” diet, his recent record is actually really impressive and includes a win, by submission, over Wander Braga (16-1 MMA). Though Braga is aging, submitting a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner of that caliber is pretty impressive. That said, I think Lauzon is going to pull this one out. He’s got the wrestling game and the control from the top to get a good win over Ruediger, and his standup is definitely better, still it’s hard to see him finishing Ruediger, so I see this one going to the judges.
Nate Diaz (12-5 MMA, 7-3 UFC) vs. Marcus Davis (17-6 MMA, 9-4 UFC)
It’s still hard for me to gauge how relevant Diaz can be at welterweight. It depends a lot on whether he bulks up enough to be able to shuck wrestlers off of him and to crack the chins of serious welterweights. He looked great against an overweight Rory Markham (16-6 MMA, 1-2 UFC) in his debut at welterweight, but this is still a tough division for Diaz to work in. Davis is a tough fighter, and anyone who’s not prepared to deal with his game is going to be in trouble, but stylistically, this is not a fight that’s that bad for Diaz. The three fighters Nate lost to at lightweight were shorter, stockier wrestlers who defended his submission attempts. It’s hard to see Diaz getting out-struck, since it hasn’t happened in his UFC career. Davis can out-strike him, but he hasn’t been that impressive in his last few fights. Still, I lean towards Davis in this fight. I think that if the Diaz brothers are going to have challenges in the standup game, it’s going to come from someone who does what they do, only better, and that’s box. Davis hasn’t had a great record against welterweight strikers recently, but dropping a split decision to Dan Hardy (23-7 MMA, 4-1 UFC, #5 IWMMAR) is hardly a huge knock on his boxing. I’m taking Davis, and while I’m not sure that he can put Diaz to sleep, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. If he does, though, it’ll be late in the fight, probably the late second or early third round.
Demian Maia (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC, #6 IWMMAR) vs. Mario Miranda (10-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC)
If any fight feels like a gimme on this card, it’s got to be taking Demian Maia against the guy who’s 1-1 in the UFC. It may very well be that Miranda is a great fighter, but a win over David Loiseau (19-10 MMA, 4-5 UFC) doesn’t mean what it used to, and since that’s all Miranda has in the UFC, it’s hard to take him over a guy who submitted top contender Chael Sonnen (25-11-1 MMA, 4-4 UFC, #2 IWMMAR) in highlight reel fashion. Of course, Maia’s chin is suspicious, but Miranda doesn’t look like a KO machine, so its hard to give him much of a shot in this one. It’s gotta go to Maia on the mat.
Kenny Florian (13-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC, #3 IWMMAR) vs. Gray Maynard (9-0-0-1 MMA, 7-0-0-1 UFC, #6 IWMMAR)
In stark contrast to the Demian Maia fight, this is a bout that’s basically impossible to call decisively. Anyone who says this is an easy decision has got to be at least a little bit delusional. This is the classic fight that’s hard to call because you have no idea how good one of the competitors is. Picking against undefeated fighters is always a shot in the dark, because until you see a guy pushed to the limit, until you see what it takes to beat him, it’s hard to assess that capacity in his opponents. Still, I’m leaning towards Florian. If Gray Maynard beats Kenny Florian, he’ll have done something that, in the last five years, has only been accomplished by the #1 lightweight at any given time. Both of Florian’s losses since he’s begun competing at lightweight have come in title shots, and I just don’t think that Maynard’s recent performances indicate that he’s that good. I see Florian taking this one. Whether it’s by outstriking Maynard and winning on the judges’ scorecards or catching a submission (my bet is on the latter) off of his back after Maynard shoots in, I think he’ll take home the win.
James Toney (0-0 UFC, 72-6-3-2 Boxing) vs. Randy Couture (18-10 MMA, 15-7 UFC)
It seems pretty clear what both fighters need to do to win this fight, and I really don’t think it’s worth either of our time to walk you guys through it. Suffice it to say, I think Randy has shown that his boxing has shown that he can be evasive enough against solid boxers to get a fight to the mat without getting knocked all to crap. The smart bet is Randy. Unless Toney has discovered the holy grail of grappling (in which case he should share his depth of wisdom with the rest of us novices) he should end up either tapping or unconscious pretty quickly.
Frankie Edgar (12-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC, #1 IWMMAR) vs. B.J. Penn (15-6-1 MMA, 11-5-1 UFC, #2 IWMMAR)
For some reason, B.J. Penn is a huge favorite in this fight, as high as -300, which is a little odd when you consider how competitive the first fight was and that B.J. doesn’t have that great track record in rematches, since he’s 1-2. But I tend to agree with the consensus. A motivated B.J. Penn is a scary thing for the lightweight division, and if he comes ready to deal with Edgar, it’s hard to see Edgar being able to handle him. It’s certainly possible that Edgar could win, even if B.J. shows up in shape, as Edgar’s boxing is great and his wrestling can give him the opportunity to make sure the fight stays standing if he’s winning there, but I’ve got to give this matchup to B.J., probably finishing Edgar with strikes.
Overall, it looks like a great event. I’m thinking Edgar vs. Penn for Fight of the Night, and Randy vs. Toney will win KO of the Night if it goes Toney’s way, and it’s hard to be against Maia for Submission of the Night. Of course, anything’s possible with some well matched undercard fights and some good grapplers (Miller, Alves, Soto, Lauzon and Ruediger) and good strikers (Osipczak, Davis, Diaz and Winner); plus, let’s face it, the lightweights are just plain more exciting than the other UFC divisions. It should be a good night, and given that there won’t be too many serious hometown favorites, it’ll be interesting to see how Boston reacts to the UFC.
News
Amilcar Alves, Andre Winner, B.J. Penn, bj penn, Dan Miller, Demian Maia, Frankie Edgar, Gabe Ruediger, Greg Soto, James Toney, Joe Lauzon, John Salter, Marcus Davis, mario miranda, Mike Pierce, mma, Nate Diaz, Nick Osipczak, Nik Lentz, Randy Couture, UFC, UFC 118
